Site icon Duncan Bucknell

The Bet You Make Before You Make Any Bet

Most capital allocation fights aren’t really about the numbers. They’re about the absence of an organizing principle. When a business has no clear answer to “what are we actually about,” every investment decision collapses into a contest between competing logics — the safe, modelable bet against the early, ambiguous one.

That tension sits at the heart of a recent Harvard Business Review piece by Rita McGrath, The Power of Strategic Centering, which argues that in an economy where roughly 90% of corporate value now lives in intangible assets, the old anchors of defensible positions and durable physical assets no longer hold. Her central example is instructive: Novartis chose to center on innovative medicines, and a radioligand cancer therapy that looked like a gamble on a spreadsheet became an obvious move. The conglomerate was worth ~$190–200bn; the focused parts are now worth roughly twice that.

The lesson for IP-intensive organisations is that coherence, not breadth, is what compounds value — and intellectual property is where that coherence either becomes real or stays theoretical. (Read the article)

For in-house IP leads and GCs, here is the durable takeaway: your patent portfolio, trade secrets and brands are the operational expression of your company’s chosen centre — or evidence that it doesn’t have one. A business centred on a mission should be building IP around the problem, not a single technology, so its filings survive the next platform shift. A technology-centred company (think Fujifilm following its chemistry into cosmetics and medical imaging) should hold its capabilities as transferable assets and protect them accordingly, not lock them to a dying market.

The practical test is simple: pull your portfolio and ask whether each asset advances the centre or merely accumulated out of habit. Assets that no longer serve the strategy are cost and clutter; the gaps where the centre is exposed are your real risk. Aligning IP strategy with business goals isn’t a compliance exercise — it’s how you make the painkiller-versus-radioligand argument disappear before it starts. If you’re weighing a portfolio against a strategy that may have quietly drifted, that’s exactly the conversation worth having now, deliberately, rather than discovering the mismatch mid-transaction.

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